Wolves vs Liverpool Predictions: Can the Condemned Show Any Fight?

Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th) host Liverpool (5th) at Molineux on Tuesday night (20:15 GMT, TNT Sports) in a fixture that reads like a foregone conclusion on paper – but football has a habit of embarrassing certainty. Wolves are rock bottom of the Premier League with relegation all but mathematically confirmed, 14 points from safety with 9 games remaining. Liverpool, by contrast, arrive on the back of a thrilling 5-2 victory over West Ham at Anfield, sitting on 48 points and just three behind the top four – with their Champions League qualification push gaining serious momentum. The reverse fixture at Anfield in December ended 2-1 to Liverpool, with Ryan Gravenberch and Florian Wirtz on the scoresheet.

Looking to bet on Wolves vs Liverpool? Here’s our selection of the best bookmakers with the most competitive Premier League odds:

Wolves: The Season From Hell Nears Its End

There is no sugar-coating Wolves’ campaign. A 19-game winless start to the Premier League season – the second-longest in top-flight history behind Bolton Wanderers’ 22 in 1902-03 – effectively sealed their fate before Christmas. Vítor Pereira was sacked on November 2 after losing 8 of 10 league games, and former crowd favourite Rob Edwards returned from Middlesbrough to take the reins. Edwards has stabilised the mood, if not the results: a 2-2 comeback against Arsenal (from 2-0 down) showed character, but the broader picture remains bleak.

The summer losses of Matheus Cunha (sold to Manchester United) and Rayan Ait-Nouri were devastating blows that Wolves lacked the financial resources to adequately replace. Adam Armstrong arrived as the headline attacking signing, and Tolu Arokodare leads the line as top scorer with a modest return. The numbers are stark: 20 goals scored in 29 games – 0.69 per match – with an xG of just 17.2, confirming that even their limited output slightly overperforms the quality of chances they create.

There is a glimmer, however. On February 27, Wolves produced their best performance of the season, stunning third-placed Aston Villa 2-0 at Molineux through goals from João Gomes and Rodrigo Gomes. That result took them to 13 points – past Derby County’s all-time PL record low of 11 – and was only their second league win of the campaign. The scenes of celebration at the final whistle told the story of a club desperate for any scrap of hope.

Defensively, Wolves’ xGA of 27.7 is 15th in the league (not catastrophic), yet they’ve conceded substantially more than expected – roughly an extra goal every 1.5 games. The goalkeeping and defensive concentration under pressure has been the real issue, with José Sá unable to replicate his 2022-23 form. The back three of Yerson Mosquera, Santiago Bueno, and Toti Gomes – who returned from a hamstring injury for the Villa win – provides some solidity, with Hugo Bueno at left wing-back and Angel Gomes and João Gomes anchoring the midfield.

The Opta supercomputer gives Wolves a 100% probability of relegation. The 2-0 win over Villa took them to 13 points, past Derby County’s all-time record low of 11 from 2007-08 – a milestone that was celebrated as if it were a cup final at Molineux. Small victories in a season of overwhelming defeat.

📊 Key Stat: Wolves went 28 games without a clean sheet before their 2-0 victory over Aston Villa on February 27 – the longest drought in the Premier League this season. One shutout does not fix a systemic defensive problem.

Liverpool’s Rollercoaster: From Crisis to Top-Four Contenders

Liverpool’s season reads like two different campaigns stitched together. The summer overhaul – selling Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid), Darwin Núñez, and Luis Díaz while bringing in Hugo Ekitike (£69m from Eintracht Frankfurt), Alexander Isak (a British record £125m from Newcastle), and Florian Wirtz – promised an exciting new era. Instead, integration struggles led to a devastating run of 9 losses in 12 games across all competitions. At one point, Arne Slot’s position was under genuine threat.

Then came the turnaround. Liverpool have won four of their last five Premier League matches, propelled by the form of Ekitike, who has been nothing short of sensational. Against West Ham on Saturday, the 23-year-old French striker scored and provided two assists in a 5-2 rout – three of Liverpool’s goals came from corners in the first half, a feat only previously achieved by Manchester United in the Premier League. Ekitike now has 16 goals and 6 assists in all competitions this season (20 goal involvements), a tally bettered only by Erling Haaland across the league.

Wirtz, after a slow start adjusting to English football’s intensity, has clicked into gear magnificently. He and Ekitike have combined for six goals in all competitions this season – the most by two players aged 23 or under for Liverpool since Michael Owen and Steven Gerrard in 2002-03. Mohamed Salah continues to provide his customary threat from the right, Virgil van Dijk has rediscovered his set-piece dominance (headed goals against Sunderland, Bournemouth, West Ham, and Newcastle in recent weeks), and Dominik Szoboszlai’s corner delivery has been a revelation.

The set-piece transformation tells its own story. Liverpool went from the worst differential between goals scored and conceded from set-pieces at the end of 2025 to the best in the league so far in 2026. Slot was candid: “Earlier this season, I said Liverpool had no chance of making the top four if we did not improve from set-pieces.”

📊 Key Stat: Hugo Ekitike is the first Liverpool player to reach 20 goal involvements in all competitions this season. Seven of his league goals have come since December – the best run of form by any Liverpool striker in 2025-26.

Tactical Breakdown: Wolves’ Low Block vs Liverpool’s Set-Piece Weaponry

Edwards will set Wolves up in a 3-4-2-1, sitting deep and compact, using Arokodare’s physical presence as an outlet and relying on Bellegarde and Mateus Mane in the half-spaces to spring counters. It’s the same pragmatic blueprint that nearly paid off against Arsenal: absorb pressure, stay in the game, and hope for a set-piece or a counter-attacking moment.

The problem is that Liverpool’s greatest recent improvement is precisely in the area where Wolves are most vulnerable. Set-pieces. Liverpool have scored from corners in four consecutive matches. Van Dijk, Konaté, and Mac Allister all present aerial threats that Wolves’ defence will struggle to handle. Slot’s 4-2-3-1 will see Salah on the right, Gakpo or Curtis Jones on the left, Wirtz in the number 10, and Ekitike leading the line.

The pace differential is also significant. Liverpool’s press – led by Ekitike’s improved off-ball work-rate (a specific point Slot highlighted) – will force Wolves into uncomfortable situations. Sá’s distribution under pressure has been poor this season, and turnovers in the defensive third have led directly to goals in multiple games. If Liverpool win the ball high, Molineux’s already muted atmosphere could turn toxic quickly.

The only path for Wolves is to keep the game tight past 60 minutes and throw bodies forward late. Edwards has shown a willingness to gamble with substitutions – the Arsenal comeback being the prime example – but doing so against Liverpool’s quality in transition is a high-risk strategy.

Wolves vs Liverpool Odds – Boomerang Bet

The well-known bookmaker Boomerang Bet has set the following odds for Tuesday’s Premier League clash:

Market	Odds	Implied Probability
Wolves Win	6.25	~16%
Draw	5.00	~20%
Liverpool Win	1.42	~70%
Over 2.5 Goals	1.75	~57%
Under 2.5 Goals	2.10	~48%
Both Teams to Score – No	1.62	~62%
Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap	1.90	~53%
Liverpool Win to Nil	2.00	~50%

The market prices this as a straightforward Liverpool win, and the numbers support that assessment comprehensively. Liverpool have won 18 of the last 23 meetings between these sides across all competitions. Even at Molineux, Wolves have struggled against Liverpool historically, and this season’s home record – despite the Villa upset – offers little comfort beyond a single bright evening.

The BTTS No line at 1.62 is attractive given Wolves’ 0.69 goals per game this season and the fact they managed just one clean sheet in 29 attempts before this fixture. The Over 2.5 line at 1.75 reflects Liverpool’s recent scoring run – 5-2, 1-0, 4-1 in their last three league wins – against a defence that concedes an extra goal every 1.5 games beyond what xGA predicts.

Projected Lineups

Wolverhampton Wanderers (3-4-2-1)

GK: José Sá · CB: Yerson Mosquera · CB: Santiago Bueno · CB: Toti Gomes · RWB: Jackson Tchatchoua · CM: João Gomes · CM: André · LWB: Hugo Bueno · AM: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · AM: Mateus Mane · ST: Tolu Arokodare

OUT: Emmanuel Agbadou (international duty) DOUBTFUL: Jorgen Strand Larsen (form – 1 goal in 15 PL apps), Lukáš Krejčí (rotation)

Liverpool (4-2-3-1)

GK: Alisson · RB: Jérémy Frimpong · CB: Virgil van Dijk · CB: Ibrahima Konaté · LB: Joe Gomez · DM: Ryan Gravenberch · DM: Alexis Mac Allister · RW: Mohamed Salah · AM: Florian Wirtz · LW: Cody Gakpo / Curtis Jones · ST: Hugo Ekitike

OUT: Alexander Isak (broken leg – surgery, months), Wataru Endo (surgery) DOUBTFUL: Curtis Jones (match fitness)

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Wincomparator: Liverpool win (53.29% probability). Over 2.5 goals (60.29%). BTTS No (54.58%).

Sports Mole: Comfortable Liverpool victory. “Wolves’ personnel losses and defensive record make any other outcome improbable.”

Forebet algorithm: Liverpool 2-0. Cites Wolves’ zero clean sheets and Liverpool’s set-piece renaissance.

Sky Sports Opta Supercomputer: Wolves 100% probability of relegation. Liverpool projected for a top-five finish based on current form.

WhoScored preview: “Liverpool usually control the ball and move it quickly through midfield, looking to get their wide attackers involved. Wolves tend to stay compact and organised but their poor response after conceding diminishes their chances.”

Best Bets and Predictions

Best bet: Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.90 (Boomerang Bet). Liverpool have won by 2+ goals in three of their last five league games (4-1 Newcastle, 5-2 West Ham, 2-0 others). Wolves have conceded 2+ goals in 19 of 28 league matches. The gap in quality is enormous, and the set-piece advantage alone should produce multiple goals.

Value pick: Liverpool Win to Nil at 2.00 (Boomerang Bet). Wolves are averaging just 0.69 goals per game. Liverpool’s defensive record has improved significantly in 2026, and Slot’s team are increasingly comfortable managing games from the front. With Van Dijk organising the backline and Alisson behind him, a clean sheet is entirely plausible.

Longshot: Hugo Ekitike to score 2+ goals at 3.50 (Boomerang Bet). He has five goals in his last three Premier League starts, 16 in all competitions, and faces a defence that has conceded more goals than any xGA model predicts. Wolves’ inability to deal with pace through the middle makes Ekitike the obvious threat.

Score Prediction: Wolves 0-2 Liverpool. Van Dijk heads home from a Szoboszlai corner before halftime. Ekitike seals it with a clinical finish in the second half. Wolves compete for 60 minutes before the quality gap tells. Edwards’ side show more fight than the scoreline suggests, but the outcome was never really in doubt.

What Comes Next

For Liverpool, this is the first step in a crucial March. Tottenham at Anfield follows on March 15, with Brighton away on March 21. If Slot’s side can maintain their current four-wins-in-five trajectory, a top-four finish – and Champions League football – is firmly within reach. The Ekitike-Wirtz partnership is the foundation: if those two stay fit and firing, Liverpool’s ceiling is as high as anyone outside Arsenal and Manchester City.

For Wolves, every remaining game is about dignity, development, and preparing for life in the Championship. Edwards has blooded young players, instilled a more combative identity, and the 2-0 win over Villa showed that even in the darkest of seasons, pride can emerge. Arokodare, Mosquera, and Hugo Bueno are assets for the future. But Tuesday night against Liverpool will test whether the Villa result was a turning point in mentality or just one magical evening against a flattering opponent.