Everton vs Burnley Predictions: Moyes’ European Chasers Meet the Walking Wounded

Everton (8th, 40 points) host Burnley (19th, 19 points) at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Tuesday evening (19:30 GMT, TNT Sports) in a match that pits two clubs on opposite emotional trajectories. David Moyes’ resurgent Toffees arrive buoyed by a dramatic 3-2 victory at Newcastle on Saturday – goals from Jarrad Branthwaite, Beto, and a late Thierno Barry winner – and sit just three points behind seventh-placed Brentford in the race for European qualification. Burnley, meanwhile, are still processing the emotional devastation of their 3-4 loss to Brentford at Turf Moor – a match in which they came back from 3-0 down to level at 3-3, only for Mikkel Damsgaard to score in the 93rd minute, and then Ashley Barnes’ 98th-minute equaliser was chalked off by VAR for handball. The cruelty of that result lingers heavily. The reverse fixture in December ended 0-0 at Turf Moor.

Looking to bet on Everton vs Burnley? Here’s our selection of the best bookmakers with the most competitive Premier League odds:

Everton: The Moyes Renaissance

This is a different Everton. After years of relegation battles and points deductions under previous regimes, David Moyes’ return to Goodison – or rather to the newly named Hill Dickinson Stadium – has produced the club’s most competitive season in half a decade. Eighth in the table with 40 points from 28 games, the Toffees are in genuine contention for a seventh-place finish that would deliver European football.

The summer overhaul was decisive. Jack Grealish arrived on loan from Manchester City and looked reborn through the first half of the season – four assists in his first three games, Premier League Player of the Month for August, and a flourishing creative partnership with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. But a stress fracture in his foot sustained during the 1-0 win at Aston Villa on January 18 required surgery and ended his season. It was a devastating blow: Grealish had been directly involved in eight goals (2G, 6A) in 22 appearances, more than any other Everton player.

Dewsbury-Hall, after a wasted year at Chelsea (259 Premier League minutes), has stepped up as the primary creative force in Grealish’s absence. His left-footed set-piece delivery ranks second in the league behind only James Ward-Prowse, and his work-rate (11.1km per 90) is the highest of any Everton player. The No. 10 set up Barry’s winner at Newcastle with a surging run into the box, exemplifying the drive that has made him indispensable. Dwight McNeil, who had barely featured since December, has been reintroduced on the right wing and provided the shot that led to Beto’s goal against Newcastle. Iliman Ndiaye operates on the left flank, providing the directness that Grealish once offered.

Up front, Thierno Barry has emerged as a genuine Premier League striker. Signed from Villarreal for £27.5m after scoring 11 goals in La Liga, the 6’5″ French forward has six Premier League goals – including the late winner at Newcastle – and his aerial dominance is extraordinary: he set a single-game record of 14 successful aerial duels against Manchester United in November. Beto provides competition and physicality off the bench, while James Garner’s corner delivery was directly responsible for Branthwaite’s opener at St James’ Park.

The Newcastle victory was a statement: Branthwaite headed Everton in front from a Garner corner on 19 minutes, Newcastle equalised through a deflected Ramsey strike, and Beto restored the lead just two minutes later after Pope fumbled McNeil’s shot. When Murphy levelled again in the 82nd minute, Barry answered within 60 seconds – Dewsbury-Hall surging into the box and squaring for the substitute to bundle home. Pickford then tipped Tonali’s thunderbolt onto the bar in stoppage time to seal it. Three wins, two draws, and two defeats from their last seven represents strong form – though the one clean sheet kept in 2026 highlights a defensive vulnerability that Moyes is still working to address.

📊 Key Stat: Everton have won three and drawn three of their six Premier League meetings against the bottom four this season (Wolves, Burnley, West Ham, Nottingham Forest). Moyes’ tactical preparation against weaker opponents has been immaculate.

Burnley: Spirit Without Reward

No team in the Premier League has endured more emotional punishment this season than Burnley. The 3-4 defeat to Brentford encapsulated everything: a shambolic first half (three goals conceded in 34 minutes, fans booing and chanting against owner Alan Pace), followed by a remarkable second-half comeback that saw Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming drag the Clarets level at 3-3. Then Flemming’s apparent go-ahead goal was ruled offside by VAR. Then Damsgaard scored in the 93rd minute. Then Barnes’ 98th-minute equaliser was disallowed for handball. It was, as NBC Sports put it, “absolutely bonkers” – and it yielded zero points.

Scott Parker, who guided Burnley to promotion last season with 100 points and a record-breaking defensive record (just 16 goals conceded in 46 Championship games), is under mounting pressure despite circumstances largely beyond his control. The summer sale of goalkeeper James Trafford to Manchester City for a club-record £31m stripped Burnley of their most important player, and the injury list reads like a casualty ward: Zeki Amdouni (ACL, season), Josh Cullen (knee, long-term), Jordan Beyer (long-term), Connor Roberts, and Armando Broja are all unavailable.

Martin Dúbravka, signed from Newcastle, has been adequate in goal but lacks Trafford’s command. The back three of Maxime Estève, Joe Worrall, and Bashir Humphreys is young and willing but overwhelmed against Premier League quality. In midfield, Ward-Prowse provides invaluable experience and set-piece threat, while Hannibal Mejbri has been Burnley’s most spirited performer – his fiery temperament and deep crosses were the catalyst for the Brentford comeback. Anthony has scored in consecutive matches and represents the primary goal threat from the wing. Lyle Foster and Lesley Ugochukwu both came off the bench to transform the Brentford second half.

The numbers are damning: 19 points from 28 games, eight points from safety with 10 to play, and the Opta supercomputer gives Burnley a 97.8% probability of relegation. Away from home, the Clarets have zero clean sheets this season. Parker’s “I will not waver” pledge after the West Ham defeat resonated, but even unwavering conviction cannot overcome the gulf in quality and depth.

📊 Key Stat: Burnley have come from behind in four separate matches this season (including the Brentford fightback), yet have earned a combined total of just one point from those games. Fighting spirit with no statistical reward.

Tactical Breakdown: Moyes’ Set-Piece Machine vs Parker’s Damaged Back Three

Moyes will deploy his familiar 4-2-3-1: Pickford in goal, Tarkowski organising the defence, Garner and Gueye screening, Ndiaye on the left providing directness, Dewsbury-Hall as the creative No. 10, McNeil offering industry on the right, and Barry as the target man. Without Grealish, the approach has become more direct – Moyes’ side average the fourth-lowest sequence time for their build-up in the Premier League, using Barry’s aerial presence to bypass the press.

Everton’s set-piece threat is particularly relevant here. They have had the most shots from set-pieces in the Premier League this season, and Dewsbury-Hall’s delivery into the six-yard box – combined with O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, and Barry attacking crosses – creates a nightmare for Burnley’s undersized back three. Worrall and Humphreys, in particular, will struggle against Barry’s aerial dominance.

Parker will set up in a 3-4-2-1 or 5-2-3, with Ward-Prowse sitting deep and Mejbri providing energy box-to-box. The strategy will be to stay compact through midfield, frustrate Everton’s build-up, and hope Anthony’s pace can exploit space in transition. The 0-0 in December showed this approach can work – but that was at Turf Moor, where Burnley’s discipline held firm. Repeating it on the road, 48 hours after the emotional demolition of the Brentford collapse, is an entirely different ask.

The psychological state of both squads matters enormously. Everton are riding a wave of confidence after Newcastle. Burnley are shellshocked after the cruellest possible defeat. The timing favours Moyes heavily.

Everton vs Burnley Odds – Boomerang Bet

The well-known bookmaker Boomerang Bet has set the following odds for Tuesday’s Premier League clash:

Market	Odds	Implied Probability
Everton Win	1.70	~59%
Draw	3.90	~26%
Burnley Win	5.75	~17%
Over 2.5 Goals	1.80	~56%
Under 2.5 Goals	2.00	~50%
BTTS Yes	1.80	~56%
BTTS No	1.95	~51%
Everton -1 Asian Handicap	2.25	~44%
Correct Score 2-1	7.50	~13%

The market prices Everton as clear favourites, though the 1.70 line is shorter than the typical home favourite against a bottom-three side – reflecting Burnley’s recent competitiveness and Everton’s own defensive inconsistencies. Both teams have seen BTTS land in 8 of their last 10 matches, making the BTTS Yes line at 1.80 one of the most statistically backed bets on the card.

However, Everton have kept clean sheets in their last three meetings against Burnley across all competitions – a stat that cuts against the BTTS trend. The question is whether this specific Everton side, which has conceded in all but one of their 2026 fixtures, can maintain the historical H2H dominance.

Projected Lineups

Everton (4-2-3-1)

GK: Jordan Pickford · RB: Jake O’Brien · CB: James Tarkowski · CB: Jarrad Branthwaite · LB: Vitaliy Mykolenko · DM: Idrissa Gana Gueye · DM: James Garner · RW: Dwight McNeil · AM: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · LW: Iliman Ndiaye · ST: Beto / Thierno Barry

OUT: Jack Grealish (foot fracture, season), Seamus Coleman (injury), Carlos Alcaraz (injury) NOTE: Tarkowski, Mykolenko, and Garner all on 4 yellow cards – one booking away from suspension

Burnley (3-4-2-1)

GK: Martin Dúbravka · CB: Maxime Estève · CB: Joe Worrall · CB: Bashir Humphreys · RWB: Lucas Pires · CM: James Ward-Prowse · CM: Hannibal Mejbri · LWB: Jaidon Anthony · AM: Zian Flemming · AM: Jacob Bruun Larsen · ST: Lyle Foster / Ashley Barnes

OUT: Zeki Amdouni (ACL, season), Josh Cullen (knee), Jordan Beyer (long-term), Armando Broja (injury), Connor Roberts (injury) DOUBTFUL: Maxime Estève (race against time for fitness – Worrall ready to deputise)

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Sportytrader algorithm: Everton win 35.87%, Draw 38.72%, Burnley win 25.41%. Prediction: BTTS Yes.

Footy Accumulators: Everton win. “Burnley should put up a solid fight, but the psychological blow of the weekend will be hard to recover from in 48 hours.”

MightyTips: Everton win. Cites Everton’s record against bottom-four sides (3W-3D) and Burnley’s 61% loss rate this season.

Dailysports: Over 2.5 goals. “Both teams just played goal-fests – 5 goals at Newcastle, 7 goals at Turf Moor. Neither defence inspires confidence for Under.”

WhoScored: Everton have won at HT and FT in their last 3 meetings vs Burnley. Clean sheet in all 3.

Best Bets and Predictions

Best bet: Everton Win at 1.70 (Boomerang Bet). Moyes has won three of the last four H2H meetings, kept clean sheets in the last three, and his team are riding the emotional high of their Newcastle victory. Burnley are psychologically damaged, away from home (zero away clean sheets), and missing five first-team players through injury. The class gap and the circumstances both favour a comfortable Everton win.

Value pick: BTTS Yes at 1.80 (Boomerang Bet). Despite the H2H clean-sheet trend, the wider form data is overwhelming: BTTS has landed in 8 of Everton’s last 10 and 8 of Burnley’s last 10 matches. Everton’s only clean sheet in 2026 is against Newcastle at Goodison. Burnley’s recent away form has seen goals at both ends – they held Chelsea and Liverpool to draws and beat Crystal Palace 3-2 away. Expect Anthony or Flemming to find a way through.

Longshot: Thierno Barry to score 2+ goals at 5.00 (Boomerang Bet). Barry’s aerial dominance (6’5″, 14 duels record) against Burnley’s makeshift back three – potentially without Estève – is a mismatch waiting to happen. He has six goals this season, three in his last five games, and Dewsbury-Hall’s set-piece delivery will provide ammunition.

Score Prediction: Everton 2-1 Burnley. Barry opens the scoring from a Dewsbury-Hall corner in the first half. Anthony pulls one back early in the second half with a characteristic run from the left. Ndiaye seals it on the counter with 20 minutes remaining. Burnley fight hard but run out of gas – 48 hours after their Brentford heartbreak, they simply don’t have the physical or emotional reserves for a full 90-minute shift against a team chasing Europe.

What Comes Next

For Everton, the equation is simple: beat the bottom-half teams at home and stay in the European conversation. Brentford in seventh on 43 points are the target – three points clear. A win on Tuesday followed by a strong March (Spurs, Brighton, Crystal Palace) could see Moyes’ men gatecrash the top seven for the first time since 2017. Dewsbury-Hall has stepped up magnificently since Grealish’s injury, Barry is scoring, and Pickford’s big-game saves continue to define moments. The Hill Dickinson Stadium feels like a place where something special is brewing.

For Burnley, the maths is unforgiving: 19 points from 28 games, eight adrift of safety. Ten games remain. Even winning half of them – an almost impossible task given their current form – would only take them to 34 points, which may not be enough. Parker’s focus has quietly shifted from survival to squad development and Championship preparation. The performances have improved – the Crystal Palace comeback, the Brentford fightback – but performances without points is the cruelest combination in football. Ward-Prowse, Mejbri, and Anthony are building something for next season. Tuesday night at the Hill Dickinson Stadium will test whether Burnley can channel the injustice of Saturday’s VAR decisions into one final act of defiance.