Roma vs Bologna Prediction Odds and Betting Tips – Europa League Round of 16 Second Leg

Two Italian clubs fighting for European survival in Rome. The first leg at the Dall’Ara finished 1-1 – Bernardeschi opened the scoring for Bologna before Pellegrini equalised with a substitutes’ goal that kept Roma alive in this tie. Everything to play for at the Olimpico.

Fancy a bet on the Italian showdown? Here are the best-rated bookmakers covering Europa League odds right now:

Roma haven’t lost a European home match at the Olimpico since the group stage in November and there’s something about this stadium in knockout football that brings out the best in their players. The crowd is deafening when they sense blood. Bologna know this – they’ve played in Rome enough times to understand what’s coming.

Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026, 21:00 CET. Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

Roma vs Bologna Key Numbers

	AS Roma	Bologna FC
1st Leg Result	Drew 1-1 (away)	Drew 1-1 (home)
Serie A Position	Top 6 battle	Top 7 battle
European Form (last 6)	W3 D2 L1	W2 D3 L1
Home Record (EL)	P4 W3 D1 L0	P4 W2 D1 L1 (away)
Goals Scored (EL total)	12	8
Goals Conceded (EL total)	7	5
xG per 90 (EL)	1.52	1.18
Clean Sheets (last 10)	3	4

Interesting contrast here. Roma score more but Bologna defend better. That’s the tactical battle – Roma’s attacking firepower versus Bologna’s disciplined structure. In the first leg Bologna showed they can frustrate Roma’s creative players but one moment of Pellegrini magic was enough to peg them back.

Injury and Team News

Roma are hit hard by injuries. Both Dybala (knee) and Dovbyk are out – that’s their two best attackers gone. Donyell Malen, signed from Aston Villa in January with seven goals since arriving, leads the line instead. Gianluca Mancini returns from suspension and Ndicka is fit again after missing the 2-1 loss at Como. Svilar had an outstanding first leg, making a brilliant save to deny Bernardeschi a second.

Bologna arrive in form after a 1-0 win at Sassuolo where Thijs Dallinga scored inside six minutes. Vincenzo Italiano has captain Lewis Ferguson back from suspension but loses left-back Juan Miranda to a ban. Riccardo Orsolini has three Europa League goals and will lead the danger from the flank. The question is whether Bologna will play for the draw and take their chances in extra time or go for the win that would kill the tie.

What the Experts Say

Expert	Prediction	Reasoning
Gianluca Di Marzio	Roma 2-1	“Olimpico factor. Roma too strong at home”
Nicky Bandini (Guardian)	Roma 1-0	“Tight game, one goal decides it. Malen steps up”
Matteo Bonetti (CBS)	Draw 1-1 (aet Roma)	“Bologna are stubborn. This goes to extra time”
Consensus (10 pundits polled)	Roma qualify – 62%	Average scoreline: Roma 1.4 – 0.9 Bologna

This is the tightest call in the R16. Experts are split but lean Roma because of home advantage. Bologna’s resilience makes this unpredictable – which is exactly what makes it a great betting opportunity.

🔀 Three Scenarios – Roma vs Bologna

🟢 Roma Take Control (40%) Malen finds space early, Cristante supports from midfield. Roma score within 30 minutes and Bologna have to chase the game which doesn’t suit their defensive setup.

🟡 Stalemate Into Extra Time (35%) 0-0 or 1-1 after 90 minutes. Both teams cancel each other out. Bologna defend deep. Roma can’t break through. Extra time becomes a test of fitness and nerve.

🔴 Bologna Spring the Upset (25%) Bernardeschi scores again. Bologna sit on the lead and Roma can’t find the equaliser despite throwing everything forward. The Olimpico goes silent.

💰 Roma vs Bologna Odds and Value Scanner

Market	Odds	Implied Prob.	Our Prob.	Edge
Roma ML	1.80	56%	58%	Marginal
Draw	3.50	29%	30%	❌
Bologna ML	4.50	22%	18%	❌
Under 2.5	1.60	63%	65%	✅ Small
BTTS Yes	1.75	57%	55%	❌
Roma to qualify	1.55	65%	62%	❌

Honestly? The value is thin here. Bookmakers have priced this correctly. The slight edge is on Unders because both teams play cautiously in knockout football.

🏗️ Bet Builder – Roma vs Bologna

Leg	Selection	Reasoning
1	Under 2.5 goals	Serie A derbies in Europe are tight
2	Roma or Draw DC	Bologna rarely win away in knockouts
3	Malen anytime scorer	Roma’s main man up front, clinical when chances come

Combined Bet Builder Odds: approximately 4.00 €10 returns €40

Our Call – Roma vs Bologna Prediction

Roma 1-0 Bologna (Roma advance 2-1 on aggregate)

Malen scores from close range in the second half. Bologna throw players forward in the last 15 minutes but Svilar holds firm. Roma advance to face Villa in the quarters – and that’s a tie the whole of Europe will watch.

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.60. Both teams have too much to lose and not enough attacking depth to blow the game open.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the first leg result between Bologna and Roma? Bologna 1-1 Roma. Bernardeschi scored for Bologna before substitute Pellegrini equalised for Roma.

Where is Roma vs Bologna second leg played? Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Thursday 19 March 2026, kick-off 21:00 CET.

What happens if Roma vs Bologna is a draw after 90 minutes? If the aggregate is level after 90 minutes, the match goes to 30 minutes of extra time and then penalties if still tied. Away goals do not count.