Porto vs Stuttgart Prediction Odds and Betting Tips – Europa League Round of 16 Second Leg

Porto travel back to the Dragão with a 2-1 lead and two away goals in their pocket. Moffi and Mora scored in Stuttgart while Undav pulled one back – but the damage was done. Stuttgart now need to win in Porto just to force extra time, and nobody wins comfortably at the Estádio do Dragão in European competition.

Ready to place your bets on European knockout football? These established bookmakers have the best Europa League odds available:

Porto under Farioli have become a proper European team again. The Italian coach brought tactical discipline and a counter-attacking philosophy that suits knockout football perfectly. They sit deep, defend in numbers and then release Borja Sainz and Moffi at terrifying speed on the break. Stuttgart’s high pressing game is exactly the kind of approach that Porto love playing against.

Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026, 21:00 CET. Estádio do Dragão, Porto.

Porto vs Stuttgart Key Numbers

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart
1st Leg Result	Won 2-1 (away)	Lost 1-2 (home)
Europa League Position	4th in league phase	Qualified via playoffs
European Form (last 6)	W4 D1 L1	W2 D1 L3
Home Record (EL)	P4 W4 D0 L0	P4 W1 D0 L3 (away)
Goals Scored (EL total)	15	20
Goals Conceded (EL total)	8	13
xG per 90 (EL)	1.71	1.35

Porto’s home record is perfect – four wins from four in the Europa League. Stuttgart’s away record is the opposite. They lost three of four away Europa League league phase matches but then smashed Celtic 4-1 in Glasgow in the playoffs – so they can score away about how this is likely to go.

Injury and Team News

Porto have no major injury concerns. Farioli has been rotating in the Liga Portugal to keep European players fresh. Moffi, Rodrigo Mora (18 years old, three goals and an assist in Europe) and Borja Sainz are all fit. Star striker Samu Aghehowa and Luuk de Jong are both injured, which is why Moffi started the first leg – and scored. Thiago Silva could return after missing the weekend for personal reasons.

Stuttgart have their key players available but the psychological damage of losing at home in the first leg is real. Führich and Undav are quality but they need to score at least twice in Porto – a stadium where visiting teams averaged 0.6 goals per game this season.

What the Experts Say

Expert	Prediction	Reasoning
Raphael Honigstein	Porto 2-0	“Stuttgart’s away form is dreadful. Porto too solid”
Gabriele Marcotti (ESPN)	Porto 1-1	“Porto manage the tie. Stuttgart score but it’s not enough”
Andy Brassell	Porto 1-0	“Farioli shuts up shop. Classic Portuguese European night”
Consensus (10 pundits polled)	Porto qualify – 84%	Average scoreline: Porto 1.5 – 0.6 Stuttgart

84% of experts back Porto. Stuttgart need to do something they’ve done once all season in Europe – win away from home. The odds reflect how unlikely that is.

🔀 Three Scenarios – Porto vs Stuttgart

🟢 Porto Kill the Tie (50%) Moffi scores on the counter within 20 minutes. Stuttgart need three goals and the night is over as a contest. Porto cruise.

🟡 Stuttgart Fight But Fall Short (35%) Undav scores again. Stuttgart create chances. But Porto’s defence holds and they pick Stuttgart off on the counter. 1-1 on the night, 3-2 on aggregate.

🔴 Stuttgart Miracle (15%) Stuttgart score twice in the first half. Porto panic. The Dragão goes nervous. But even then Stuttgart need a third to win the tie outright. Almost impossible.

💰 Porto vs Stuttgart Odds and Value Scanner

Market	Odds	Implied Prob.	Our Prob.	Edge
Porto ML	1.60	63%	68%	✅
Draw	3.80	26%	22%	❌
Stuttgart ML	5.50	18%	10%	❌
Under 2.5	1.70	59%	62%	✅ Small
Porto to qualify	1.14	88%	92%	Marginal

🏗️ Bet Builder – Porto vs Stuttgart

Leg	Selection	Reasoning
1	Porto or Draw DC	Stuttgart haven’t won away in Europe since October
2	Under 2.5 goals	Porto defend first, attack second at home
3	Moffi anytime scorer	Scored in first leg, leading the line with Samu injured

Combined Bet Builder Odds: approximately 3.20 €10 returns €32

Our Call – Porto vs Stuttgart Prediction

Porto 2-0 Stuttgart (Porto advance 4-1 on aggregate)

This won’t be close. Porto’s counter-attack is devastating and Stuttgart’s high line plays directly into their hands. Moffi and Mora score. The Dragão celebrates. Stuttgart’s European adventure ends in Portugal.

Best bet: Porto ML at 1.60. The safest bet in the entire R16 second leg programme. Porto at home with a lead under Farioli? This is as close to a banker as European football gets.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the first leg result between Stuttgart and Porto? Stuttgart 1-2 Porto. Moffi and Mora scored for Porto. Undav scored for Stuttgart.

When is Porto vs Stuttgart second leg? Thursday 19 March 2026, kick-off 21:00 CET at Estádio do Dragão, Porto.

What do Stuttgart need to qualify? Stuttgart need to win by 2+ goals to force extra time or win by 3+ goals to qualify in normal time. Porto advance with any win, draw, or 1-goal defeat.