Napoli vs Milan Prediction, Odds & Tips | Serie A | April 6, 2026
Napoli have not lost a home Serie A game since December 2024. That is 25 matches without defeat at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, and Monday night Milan arrive needing three points to keep Inter in sight. Opta puts Napoli at 39% to win, Milan at 31%, with a draw sitting at 29%. Three teams separated by one point, eight games left, one stadium that has been a fortress all season.
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Match Preview
Napoli come into this on a four-match winning streak in Serie A, the most recent a 1-0 win over Cagliari. Rasmus Højlund leads their scoring with 10 goals this season, third highest in the league, three of which opened the scoring and set the tone for the game. When Højlund scores first Napoli tend to win. That pattern matters in a match where the first goal could be decisive.
Milan arrive on shakier form. Three wins, one draw and two losses in their last six league games, compared to Napoli’s four wins, one draw and one loss. They beat Torino 3-2 in their last match which shows they can score but also that they can be opened up. Rafael Leão with nine goals and Christian Pulisic with eight have carried Milan’s attack all season, and both will need to function against a Napoli side that has conceded very little at home.
The only meeting between these sides this season ended 2-1 to Milan at San Siro in September. Saelemaekers scored in the third minute, Pulisic added a second, De Bruyne pulled one back from the penalty spot for Napoli in the 60th minute. Milan won that day away from home. Napoli have a chance to settle that account in front of their own crowd.
One Opta insight sits underneath all of this: both teams have scored in each of Napoli’s last six home games. Milan’s attack is good enough to find the net here even against this home record, and Napoli with Højlund leading the line will not sit back and defend.
Team News
Højlund leads Napoli’s attack and is expected to start. No significant absences reported ahead of the tie.
Leão and Pulisic are both expected to feature for Milan. Their away record this season — nine wins, five draws, one loss — suggests Fonseca will set up to attack rather than contain.
Our Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Milan
Napoli’s home record is the hardest fact in this preview. Twenty-five games unbeaten at Maradona is not luck. Milan have the quality to score, both teams have scored in every one of Napoli’s last six home games, but three points stay in Naples on Monday night.
Tip: Both Teams to Score. Both sides have scored in each of Napoli’s last six home matches. Milan’s attack includes Leão and Pulisic with 17 goals between them. A clean sheet for either side looks unlikely.
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