Leverkusen vs Olympiacos: UCL Playoff Prediction & Tips

Bayer Leverkusen host Olympiacos at the BayArena on Tuesday at 21:00 CET carrying a 2-0 first-leg lead from Piraeus. Patrik Schick scored twice in three minutes on February 18 to give Kasper Hjulmand’s side full control of this tie — and now the German club need just a clean home performance to book their spot in the Champions League round of 16 for the second straight season. The round of 16 draw takes place on February 27, where the winners face either Arsenal or Bayern Munich.

Olympiacos have not won on German soil since 2007. They need to score at least three goals without reply — or two without conceding to force extra time — against a side that has advanced from 20 of 22 previous European knockout ties after winning the first leg. José Luis Mendilibar’s squad will fight, but the math and the venue both work against them.

How Schick’s Double Killed the Tie in Piraeus

The first leg looked like a stalemate for 59 minutes. Konstantinos Tzolakis made four saves — including a fingertip stop on Ibrahim Maza’s volley that hit the crossbar — to keep the Greek champions level. El Kaabi thought he’d headed home the opener just before halftime, only for the goal to be chalked off for Taremi’s offside position in the buildup.

Then Schick broke loose. Ernest Poku found space on the right and slipped a pass into the Czech striker’s path on 60 minutes. Schick buried it low. Three minutes later, Alejandro Grimaldo whipped a free-kick into the area and Schick peeled off his marker to double the lead. The game was over as a contest inside 180 seconds.

The xG data backed the scoreline: Leverkusen created 1.9 expected goals from just eight shots, while Olympiacos generated 0.8 from 13 attempts. Quality over quantity. The German side finished their chances. The Greeks did not.

One detail Hjulmand will want to address: Olympiacos had the better of the first half. Gelson Martins terrorized the right side of Leverkusen’s defense, and the hosts pressed with an intensity that rattled the visitors for long spells. The difference was Tzolakis’s heroics keeping the score at 0-0 — without those saves, Leverkusen could have been three up by the break.

📊 Key Stat: 20 of 22 — Bayer Leverkusen have progressed from 20 of 22 European two-legged ties after winning the first match. The only exits came against Atletico Madrid (2014/15) and Udinese (1999/00). (Source: Opta via UEFA records)

Leverkusen’s Injury Headaches and Tactical Shape

Hjulmand has a depleted squad. Loïc Badé tore a thigh muscle in Saturday’s 1-0 Bundesliga loss at Union Berlin and faces a month on the sidelines. Malik Tillman took a kick to the ankle in that same match and is a serious doubt — Hjulmand admitted at Monday’s press conference that “we don’t think he’ll be able to play.” Mark Flekken (knee), Nathan Tella (bruised knee), and Eliesse Ben Seghir remain long-term absentees.

If Tillman misses out, veteran Jonas Hofmann will step into the attacking midfield. Hjulmand’s 3-4-2-1 shape won’t change: Janis Blaswich in goal, Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, and Edmond Tapsoba across the back three, with Lucas Vázquez and Grimaldo as wing-backs. Aleix García and Exequiel Palacios will anchor midfield. Up top, Schick starts — his four Champions League goals this season make him the side’s most reliable scorer.

Poku, the 21-year-old Dutch forward, deserves a special mention. He created three chances in the first leg and has been directly involved in four goals across his last six appearances. His pace and directness off the right flank give Leverkusen an outlet that Olympiacos struggle to handle.

“It’s a good position to be in and a good result. But also a dangerous one, if you take it too lightly. We’re taking the game very seriously — it’s not over yet.” — Kasper Hjulmand, pre-match press conference, February 23, 2026.

Olympiacos: Wounded but Not Finished

Mendilibar’s men arrive in Germany with more belief than their recent form suggests. Yes, they’ve won just one of their last four matches across all competitions. Yes, they failed to score in three of those games. But this is the same club that beat Leverkusen 2-0 at the Karaiskakis Stadium during the league phase on January 20 — a result that proves they know how to hurt this opponent.

Theofanis Bakoulas (ligament) and Konstantinos Angelakis (ACL) are the only confirmed absentees. The rest of the squad is fit — a rare advantage in a European knockout tie.

Mehdi Taremi is the key figure. The Iranian striker links play between the lines, drops deep to collect the ball, and has been directly involved in four European goals this season (two scored, two assisted). He’s the player most capable of turning a half-chance into a moment that shifts the atmosphere inside the BayArena. Around him, Gelson Martins and Daniel Podence provide speed and dribbling threat — Podence wins over 70% of his one-on-one duels, one of the best rates in the competition.

Ayoub El Kaabi remains the main penalty-box presence. The Moroccan was denied by the offside flag in the first leg but had already scored in two straight domestic matches before that. His movement and finishing at close range could punish any loss of concentration from Leverkusen’s center-backs.

The big question is midfield control. Santiago Hezze and Christos Mouzakitis anchor the pressing system, but Leverkusen’s ball circulation through García and Palacios suffocated them for long stretches in the first leg. If the Greeks can’t win second balls and push the tempo higher than Leverkusen want, the tie will drift away from them inside the opening 30 minutes.

The History That Haunts Olympiacos

The numbers are brutal for the visitors. Olympiacos have won just one of 11 away matches against German clubs in European competition — a 1-0 win at Werder Bremen in 2007. They have lost every European tie in which they trailed by two or more goals after the first leg. Their last away win in the Champions League knockout rounds came in the 2013/14 season.

Leverkusen, for their part, have won all seven European ties in which they held a two-goal first-leg advantage. The BayArena has been kind to them in recent seasons — just two defeats in 18 home European matches. Hjulmand’s side also carry the competition’s highest pressing success rate among German clubs, meaning Olympiacos will struggle to build from the back without being harassed.

But there is one stat that should worry the home crowd: Leverkusen’s last three matches against Olympiacos in all competitions have produced fewer than 2.5 goals. If the Greek side can keep the game tight and low-scoring early on, the crowd’s frustration could become a factor. A goalless first half would give Olympiacos genuine belief — and the BayArena can turn tense when the home side can’t find a breakthrough.

Boomerang Bet Odds: Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiacos

Bookmaker Boomerang Bet has priced Tuesday’s second leg with Leverkusen as clear favorites on the night and heavy favorites to advance:

• Bayer Leverkusen to win: 1.75
• Draw: 4.00
• Olympiacos to win: 4.50
• Over 2.5 goals: 1.72
• Both teams to score — Yes: 1.60
• Leverkusen to qualify: 1.10
• Olympiacos to qualify: 6.50
• Schick to score anytime: 2.30

The implied probability gives Leverkusen a 57% chance of winning on the night and over a 90% chance of advancing. But the match odds are more generous than most playoff second legs — a reflection of the recent Union Berlin loss and the injuries to Badé and Tillman that have thinned the squad.

The BTTS at 1.60 is the standout play. Three of Leverkusen’s four home Champions League matches this season saw both teams score, and 75% of all their home games this term have followed the same pattern. Olympiacos have found the net in six consecutive European fixtures, and Taremi’s ability to create something from nothing gives them a route to goal even in a game they’re expected to lose.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 also carries value. Leverkusen average two goals per home game and concede 2.5 — a bizarre split that produces open, high-scoring contests. The hosts won’t sit on their lead; Hjulmand said as much in his press conference.

Want to place your bets on this match? Here are the bookmakers where you can wager:

Our Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Olympiacos (Leverkusen advance 4-1 on aggregate)

Hjulmand’s side will control this match from the opening whistle. García’s passing and Grimaldo’s forward runs will pin Olympiacos back, and Schick will get chances — he always does at the BayArena. Expect the first goal inside 25 minutes, likely from a set piece or a Poku-created opportunity.

Olympiacos will score. They always do against this Leverkusen defense. Taremi will drop between the lines, find a pocket of space, and either finish himself or set up El Kaabi for a consolation. But it won’t be enough. The two-goal cushion is too large, the venue too hostile, and the gap in knockout experience too wide.

The Opta supercomputer gives Leverkusen a 51.5% chance of winning on the night. Former Olympiacos midfielder Kostas Fortounis, now a TV pundit in Greece, told ERT Sport on Sunday that “the tie is dead — but our boys should play with pride in Germany.” That’s the honest assessment. Leverkusen march on to face Arsenal or Bayern in the last 16, with the draw set for February 27 in Nyon.

Best bet: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 (Boomerang Bet) Value pick: Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 (Boomerang Bet)