Connacht vs Scarlets Prediction Odds and Betting Tips for URC Round 2 Rescheduled – March 13 2026

Connacht shocked everyone two weeks ago. Stuart Lancaster’s side went to Galway and toppled league leaders Glasgow Warriors 15-10 in a ferocious Round 12 performance that turned the top of the URC table upside down. That result – combined with their earlier 31-15 dismantling of Zebre – means Connacht have won two of their last three and sit 10th on 25 points with genuine ambitions of a top-8 finish and Champions Cup qualification.

Scarlets arrive in Galway on the back of a miserable campaign. Dwayne Peel’s team are 15th in the URC with just 16 points from their opening rounds. They have lost four consecutive away matches in all competitions and have not won on Irish soil since beating Connacht 17-15 at this same venue back in September 2017. That is an astonishing eight-year drought on the road in Ireland. The Welsh side’s only bright spot has been the occasional flashes of individual brilliance from their Six Nations contingent – Sam Costelow at fly-half and the back three of Tom Rogers, Blair Murray and Ellis Mee have all been called into Wales duty this season.

This is another rescheduled Round 2 fixture from early October. Connacht were originally supposed to host Scarlets at Dexcom Stadium – their redeveloped home ground that has become a genuine fortress this season. The atmosphere under lights in Galway is special. The Clan Terrace generates noise that belies the 8,000 capacity and visiting teams consistently underperform at this venue.

The key question is not whether Connacht win – the bookmakers have that at 1.30 and it looks right. The question is by how much and whether the total points market offers value. Scarlets concede an average of 28 points per away URC match this season. Connacht score an average of 24 at home. That arithmetic alone points to a comfortable home victory.

Kick-off: 20:45 GMT (22:45 Kyiv), Dexcom Stadium, Galway. URC Round 2 (rescheduled).

Squad News and Key Players – Connacht vs Scarlets Prediction Analysis

Connacht welcome back Cian Prendergast and Bundee Aki from Ireland’s Six Nations squad. Those two alone transform the team. Prendergast at blindside flanker is one of the most dynamic ball-carriers in the URC – his offloading game creates second-phase opportunities that Scarlets will struggle to contain. Aki in the centres brings international-level physicality and organisation. Captain Paul Boyle anchors the back row with aggressive carrying and tireless defensive work.

In the backs Josh Ioane at fly-half has been inconsistent but his best performances at Dexcom Stadium have been outstanding – his kicking game controls territory and his flat passes put runners into space. Scrum-half Caolin Blade provides tempo from the base. The back three of Mack Hansen, Shane Jennings and either Chay Mullins or Sam Gilbert offers pace and counter-attacking threat. Hansen in particular is a match-winner on his day – the Ireland wing scores tries that nobody else in the competition would even attempt.

Scarlets will lean heavily on their forward pack to compete at the set-piece. Josh MacLeod captains from the back row and brings workrate and breakdown presence. Ryan Elias at hooker is a British and Irish Lion and his lineout throwing is Scarlets’ most reliable source of possession. In the backs Costelow needs to control the kicking contest – if Scarlets lose the territorial battle they will be chasing the game from the first quarter. Rogers on the wing is their primary try-scoring threat.

The fitness of Connacht’s returning internationals will determine how dominant the home side are. If Prendergast and Aki play 60+ minutes Connacht should win by two scores or more. If they are managed carefully with early substitutions Scarlets could stay within touching distance in the final quarter.

📊 Key Stat: Connacht have beaten Scarlets in 7 of their last 8 home URC meetings. The last Scarlets win in Galway was September 2017.

Head to Head Record and Betting History – Connacht vs Scarlets

The historical record between these teams is heavily weighted towards the home side. Connacht’s Galway fortress has been almost impregnable against Scarlets – only one defeat in the last eight visits spanning five seasons. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Scarlets compete hard at Parc y Scarlets before fading in the final quarter.

In betting terms Connacht have been favourites in all 8 home URC matches this season and have covered the -7.5 handicap spread in 4 of 6 wins. Scarlets have failed to cover +7.5 in 5 of their last 8 away URC defeats. The pattern is clear – Scarlets are poor travellers and Connacht punish visiting teams at Dexcom Stadium.

The total points market is where the value lies. Connacht home matches this season average 44.6 combined points. Scarlets away matches average 47.2 combined points. Both figures are comfortably above the 40.5 line that bookmakers have set.

💰 Connacht vs Scarlets Odds and Predictions – Where is the Value?

Market	Bookmaker Odds	Implied Prob.	Our True Prob.	Edge
Connacht Win	1.30	76.9%	80%	+3.1% ✅
Draw	17.00	5.9%	2%	-3.9% ❌
Scarlets Win	5.50	18.2%	12%	-6.2% ❌
Connacht -7.5	1.75	57.1%	62%	+4.9% VALUE ✅
Scarlets +7.5	2.05	48.8%	38%	-10.8% ❌
Over 40.5 Total Pts	1.85	54.1%	60%	+5.9% VALUE ✅
Under 40.5 Total Pts	1.95	51.3%	40%	-11.3% ❌

Two clear value bets emerge from this analysis. Connacht -7.5 at 1.75 has nearly 5% edge – the home side have the quality to win by two converted tries and Scarlets’ away defensive record is among the worst in the URC. Over 40.5 total points at 1.85 has almost 6% edge – both teams contribute to high-scoring matches and wet Galway conditions actually suit Connacht’s forward-dominant game plan which generates multiple close-range try-scoring opportunities.

💵 Season Stats Comparison

The chart below shows the statistical gulf between Connacht and Scarlets across every key metric this season.

The data makes the case clearly – Connacht are superior in every category. The -7.5 handicap at 1.75 and Over 40.5 at 1.85 both represent genuine value based on these season-long trends.

🔀 Three Match Scenarios – Connacht vs Scarlets Tips

🟢 Connacht Bonus Point Win (45% probability) Prendergast and Aki dominate. Connacht score 4+ tries with Hansen finishing twice. Scarlets collapse after half-time. Connacht secure a bonus-point victory that moves them to 30 points and firmly into the top-8 conversation.

• Score: Connacht 33-14 Scarlets
• Bet: Connacht -7.5 @ 1.75

🟡 Comfortable Home Win (35% probability) Connacht control territory but Scarlets compete at the breakdown. Rogers scores a first-half try to keep it close. Connacht pull away with two second-half tries but never truly dominate.

• Score: Connacht 26-17 Scarlets
• Bet: Over 40.5 Total Points @ 1.85

🔴 Scarlets Shock (20% probability) Galway rain disrupts Connacht’s game plan. Costelow kicks everything and Scarlets’ pack competes fiercely at scrum time. Connacht frustration builds. Scarlets hold on for a famous away win.

• Score: Connacht 15-18 Scarlets
• Bet: Scarlets Win @ 5.50

🏗️ Bet Builder for Connacht vs Scarlets Prediction

Leg	Selection	Reasoning
1	Connacht Win	80% probability – fortress Dexcom + returning internationals
2	Over 40.5 Total Points	Both teams contribute to high-scoring matches
3	Connacht 3+ Tries	They score 3+ in 70% of home URC wins
4	Hansen Anytime Try	Ireland wing finishes in most home matches

Combined Bet Builder Odds: approximately 4.80 €10 returns €48

🏉 Try Scorer Predictions for Connacht vs Scarlets

Player	Anytime Try Odds	Rating	Case For
Mack Hansen (CON)	1.90	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Ireland wing at his devastating best at Dexcom. Counter-attacks and broken-field running make him the most likely scorer.
Bundee Aki (CON)	3.50	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Crash ball specialist who scores from close range. Back from Six Nations duty and hungry to make an impact.
Cian Prendergast (CON)	4.00	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Dynamic back-rower who finishes wide and off the back of mauls. His offloading creates and finishes tries.
Tom Rogers (SCR)	3.50	⭐⭐⭐	Scarlets’ best attacking weapon. Welsh international finishes when given half a chance.
Shane Jennings (CON)	4.50	⭐⭐⭐	Young wing who has been in excellent form. Finishes on the outside when Connacht go wide.

📱 Same Game Multi for Connacht vs Scarlets

Leg	Selection	Reasoning
1	Connacht -7.5	Home dominance + Scarlets’ away record
2	Over 40.5 Total Points	High-scoring venue
3	Hansen Anytime Try	Best finisher on the pitch

SGM Odds: approximately 4.50 €10 returns €45

Correct Score Prediction – Connacht vs Scarlets Best Bets

Best Bet: Connacht -7.5 @ 1.75 – 62% true probability vs 57% implied. Nearly 5% edge. Scarlets do not have the squad depth or away form to stay within a converted try of this Connacht side at Dexcom Stadium.

Value Bet: Over 40.5 Total Points @ 1.85 – 60% true probability vs 54% implied. Almost 6% edge. Connacht score freely at home and Scarlets concede freely away. The maths works.

Longshot: Scarlets Win @ 5.50 – only if you believe the Six Nations disruption has left Connacht undercooked. Unlikely but not impossible in wet Galway conditions.

Our Call: Connacht 29-17 Scarlets. The home side win comfortably with four tries. Hansen and Prendergast score. Scarlets get a consolation through Rogers but never seriously threaten. Connacht move to 30 points and push into the top-8 playoff positions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the predicted score for Connacht vs Scarlets? Our prediction is Connacht 29-17 Scarlets. The home side are dominant at Dexcom Stadium and Scarlets have not won in Galway since 2017.

What is the best bet for Connacht vs Scarlets rugby? Connacht -7.5 at 1.75. The handicap has nearly 5% value edge and Connacht cover this spread in most home victories.

What time does Connacht vs Scarlets kick off? Kick-off is 20:45 GMT (22:45 Kyiv) on Friday March 13 2026 at Dexcom Stadium in Galway.